रुससँग तनाव बढिरहेको समयमा अमेरिकाले चीनलाई पनि चिढ्याउने अर्को कदम चालेको छ । दक्षिणी चीन सागरमा चीनको सैन्य अभ्यास सकिए लगत्तै अमेरिकाले विमानवाहक पोत विनसनलाई पेट्रोलिङका लागि उतारेसंगै दुई देशको तनाव थप उत्कर्षमा पुगेको छ । समाचार एजेन्सी रोयटर्सका अनुसार रियर एडमिरल जेम्स किल्वीले यो अमेरिकाको शक्ति प्रदर्शन नभएको भन्दै समुन्द्रको पानी सवैको साझा हुनुपर्ने दावी गरेका छन् ।
While thankfully the chances of all-out war are remote, as all parties would have a tremendous amount to lose—including their own lives in a nuclear confrontation—the possibility remains, as history has taught us all too well. Here we will explore five ways Washington and Beijing could find themselves in open conflict. While this essay for reasons of time and space won’t ponder over the consequences of such a conflict, you can be sure of one thing: if tensions were to escalate beyond just a minor, isolated clash, there is the distinct possibility a third and possibly atomic world war would be in the offing.
Over the last few years, I have undertaken what most would consider a depressing assignment: debating and thinking through the possibility of a great-power war in today’s chaotic international environment. And for good reason. As Washington attempts to transition away from counterinsurgency operations and the nightmare that has become the Middle East, new challenges—many from revisionist great powers—seem to be popping up around the globe. The crisis in Ukraine—with many now openly calling the state of U.S.-Russian relations “Cold War 2.0”—serves as perhaps the best example of such a chilling possibility.
Yet, despite whatever the crisis of the day is, when it comes to challenges Washington must face in the years to come, none is as important as the challenge presented by the People’s Republic of China. Beijing—now empowered by an economy and military that is only second to America—seems bent on remaking the international order in the Asia-Pacific and possibly the wider Indo-Pacific at least partly in its own image. From the East China Sea to the wide expanses of the Indian Ocean, China has clearly made its intentions known that the current international order is open to at least some revision on its terms. Over the last several years, various clashes over the very meaning of the maritime commons, natural resources below the sea bed, air-defense identification zones and various near collisions in the near seas and in the sky have set off alarm bells in capitals around Asia. While Washington has declared its own “pivot” or “rebalance” towards Asia, destabilizing and what some have called “coercive actions” by China have continued unabated.
So where does all of this end up? Is open war in Asia a possibility? Would the United States be sucked in?
While thankfully the chances of all-out war are remote, as all parties would have a tremendous amount to lose—including their own lives in a nuclear confrontation—the possibility remains, as history has taught us all too well. Here we will explore five ways Washington and Beijing could find themselves in open conflict. While this essay for reasons of time and space won’t ponder over the consequences of such a conflict, you can be sure of one thing: if tensions were to escalate beyond just a minor, isolated clash, there is the distinct possibility a third and possibly atomic world war would be in the offing.
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